There are precious few days left until the election, as you might know if, like me, you were in Prospect Park on Sunday afternoon, basking in sunlight and in *not* thinking about the election for a moment, and you got a call on your cell phone from an Obama volunteer. The media is crazier than Ashley Todd these days — screaming, running in circles, and flapping its hands. This is only right. I have, however, listened carefully to the mad ramblings and separated them out into three discernible narratives for the endgame. Take your pick.

#1) It’s Obama in a Blowout. State polls throughout October have shown Obama with a clear lead. Right now, CNN gives him 291 electoral votes, E-V.com gives him 364 (down from 375 yesterday), and everyone’s best friend Nate gives him precisely 364.5. Even right-leaning RCP and nonpartisan Pollster acknowledge that in this case reality has a strong liberal bias. How strong? 311.

This storyline is supported by well-respected, neutral pundits like Charlie Cook as well as the most recent Gallup tracking poll, which decided, for Halloween, to get dressed up as Obama’s best numbers ever:

Thursday night’s interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama’s widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. … Obama’s favorable position among traditional likely voters in the latest polling is partially reflective of his strong position among all registered voters. However, at other times when Obama has led McCain by 11-points among registered voters, his likely voter advantage has been lower than it is now, in the five- to seven-point range. Thus, Obama’s improved likely voter standing also reflects a higher turnout propensity for his supporters than what Gallup has seen at earlier times this month.

Also Obama won some crucial cookie-poll in Ohio.

But if you’re wrinkling your nose at that storyline, don’t despair. Santa has a storyline in his bag of gifts for you:

#2: McCain is Making a Comeback! True, this tonic is primarily being peddled by the McCain campaign itself and has been gently debunked by experts. Still, anything is possible, as the media in general and John Dickerson specifically reminds us.

Could it be true? Of course! Secret racists, undecideds, complacent Barry-lovers, blacks and young people who don’t actually turn up, Jews in Florida getting spooked by Obama’s latest suspect affiliation (that man will hang out with anyone!), or some other October surprise could tilt the race back to the GOP. Never count your chickens, chickens.

#3: Death! That’s right, somebody DIES. I don’t have any fancy links for you on this one, since it’s mostly the narrative constantly running through my own head. These effigies don’t help, either.

But tonight is halloween and I’m dressed as a mini Joan Holloway — in an orange retro wig, an animal print scarf, a dress, a pen necklace, a purse, and a cigarette case — and, in keeping with the character, I’m going to try to focus on the important things at a party tonight: power, sex, and sarcasm. Let’s see how I do!

(Via Gawker)

It’s been an overcast day in my heart—my hilarious, creative, totally stressball friends, who have been staying with me all week, are winging their way back to pinko Georgia. Farewell! Thanks for leaving me alone with my poll-tracking obsession and DVD 3 of “John Adams” from Netflix, which should come with tissues. Every episode somehow turns me into emotional applesauce. Stick a flag in me: I’m done.

A professional disappointment and rejection or two haven’t helped, either. But the Ellen clip above made me smile, and so did this poignant photo collection of Obama in the early days of his campaign.

The subtitle reads: “… he asked me if I was photographing his shoes. When I said yes, he told me that he had already had them resoled once since he entered the race a year earlier.” That’s especially worth thinking about on a day where the RNC is all over the news for spending $150,000 on wardrobe and makeover for Sarah Palin. Also it reminded me of something Mr. Ben would do and it made me love Barry all the more.

You can’t swing a baseball bat in an election year without hitting a bellwether, or so it’s beginning to seem. Here is a collection of the bellwethers that people SWEAR will determine the election this November:

1. The state of Missouri. ACCURACY: “Missouri is a traditional bellwether that has picked every presidential contest since 1960” and “all but one election since 1904.” ADVANTAGE: Currently: Obama. But everyone knows Missouri is full of white people who are totally unreliable!

[Obama] he will have to overcome latent racism among rural whites, an element more than one expert described as an “unknown quantity” in Missouri particularly because residents have seen so few black candidates run for state or national office.

2. Chillicothe, Ohio. ACCURACY: “No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio … Inside the bellwether state is the bellwether town of Chillicothe, a town that often mirrors the state’s election results.” Often? How scientific. ADVANTAGE: Split. Ohio in general is pretty blue these days, though.

3. Hillsborough County, Florida. ACCURACY: Doesn’t say. Its claim to be a bellwether may be bullshit. Still, it’s Florida, which we know is an important state. Let it stand. ADVANTAGE: Currently Obama.

Obama not only won 49 percent of women voters, to McCain’s 43 percent, but he captured a plurality of male voters, beating McCain 45 percent to 39 percent.

Florida’s looking pretty good too — the conservatives are freaking out! and even Gov. Charlie Crist, still pouting about not being tapped for Veep, went to Disney World instead of helping McCain! — but I don’t trust it. FL’s biggest import is old white people, and they are even more racist than regular white people.

4. The size of the candidates. Apparently the bigger candidate almost always wins, except when the smaller/lighter candidate is George W. Bush, who is a magical elf. ADVANTAGE: Obama has several inches and about 15 lbs on McCain. But Teddy Roosevelt was shorter than the other guy in 1904 and won, and was heavier than the other guy in 1912 but lost. What a maverick. (BTW: Who knew Roosevelt ran again in ’12? I didn’t and I majored in American History!)

5. The Scholastic kids election. ACCURACY: “Since 1940, the results of the student vote in the Scholastic Election Poll (online voting was added in 2000) have mirrored the outcome of the general election, except twice: in 1948 when students chose Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman and in 1960 when more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than John F. Kennedy.” E for Effort, kidlets. ADVANTAGE: Colbert.

Boys favored Obama 49% to 46% for McCain, while girls chose Obama more definitively, 57% to 39%. Rounding out this year’s vote, 4% of students voted for other candidates, the highest percentage of write-in votes in the history of the poll. Student write-ins included Senator Hillary Clinton, Congressman Ron Paul, Independent candidate Ralph Nader, and a handful of votes for television personality Stephen Colbert.

ALSO: Obama, who is like Colbert in that he is young and looks good on the teevee.

BONUS FUN: I say the real bellwether is just what folks expect to happen. So what do Republicans think will happen this year?

“A poll of 100 leading Republican political consultants by the conservative National Journal found that 80 believe Mr McCain will lose the election, while the remaining 20 think it could go either way.”

Margin of error: +/- 20%.

Three nerve racking weeks to go! Bellwethers are known to be all mavericky so there will be no counting of chickens. Also, did I miss any, also? Feel free to point out your favorite other ways we can tell what’s going to happen and so don’t need to bother to vote.

Speaking of hate, here are some videos to illustrate what an inept and amateurish hater I am compared to the professionals out there.

I call this one “Palin Supporters Heckle ‘Commie Faggots.'” Its proper title is “Sidewalk to Nowhere” and its filmed on-site in godly Bethlehem, PA.

Then there’s this one from Blogger Interrupted, filmed in a Strongville, OH parking lot outside a Palin rally. The word “terrorist” is thrown around an awful lot. Also the word “bloodlines.” These must be the small-town values of which I have heard tell.

ANGRY, the word journalists are using, feels like a euphemism when used to describe this. (And this shit does not help!) Hopefully the Secret Service is paying attention to the threat posed by some of the disgruntled, possibly unhinged people who consider Obama a terrorist socialist who actually has a chance to win.

ETA: Oh! Apparently McCain has heard my knees knocking with fear and has moved to calm the crowds. That’s something, anyway.